The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? By Alan Dupont. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. That sounds frightening!!! The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. [8] Gabriel Kolko. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. And that was when I was a child !! Try again. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! Historical Statistics. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. they wont need to invade, they will own us. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. !! *chuckle*. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. Gosh and golly. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. particularly June Bullivant. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. Drop file here. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. This is the real war. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. And correspondingly, where to place the US? The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. Just $5 a month. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. Sydney: Murdoch Press. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. Jacqui Lambie!! Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. After all its our back yard. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. [2] Hugh White. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. God help our descendents. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. And we are afraid of China? Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. At any rate Australia is in trouble. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. No Australian Government can or could begin this journey to peace as all the present shitstems operations are to fuel war cause war is big business. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. New York: Free Press, 1992. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. 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